Infante to the Cubs... [From 'Yay' to 'Nay' in 30 minutes]

When I first read the article about Infante coming to the Cubs for Jacque, I was ecstatic. It couldn't have gone better. Now we have room for Fukudome in RF, Bradley/Hunter/Jones/anyone else in CF, and SS is taken care of. I changed my mind in 30 easy minutes, and I think I can change yours (I use the term 'yours' loosely because there are none of "you", I don't have readers.)

Last year, Infante played 66 games, had 166 at-bats and hit .271. When he got in the game the Tigers went 36-30, 21-18 when he started. His longest hit streak was 5 games. He had 178 PA this year. He had 17 RBI, and had 118 men on base when hitting. The average hitter with 178 PA in a season has 21 RBI with 5 less runners on base. That's HUGE. Those chances are the ones that change games. He had a 14% success rate of getting runners home compared to a league average of 19%, which leaves him at a -5%.

On the flip side, Jacque had 135 games, 453 at-bats and a .285 average, with a disappointing 5 homers. While I agree he doesn't have enough power to be an everyday outfielder, he hits the ball and faced with oppurtunity, he drives in runs. In his appearances this year, the Cubs went 71-64, 59-54 when he started. He had 495 PA, 66 RBI, with a total 345 men on base when he stepped up to the plate. The average player with 495 PA gets 58 RBI, with 314 on base. This is a 19% success rate for Super-Jacque, compared to a league average of 18%. That leaves Mr. Jones at a +1%.

If Infante has the same amount of PAs next year as Jacque did this year with the same amount of runners on (or if he has more), it would deprive the Cubs of 17+ runs. That's a lot of runs. It might not seem like a lot, but it is essential. If you won a game 3-2 last year, you might not be so lucky this year. For example, July 24th, 2007. Jacque Jones went 1 for 2 with 2 walks and an RBI. In the top of the 2nd inning, he singled home Cliff Floyd. This ended up being an essential run for the Cubs. If not, when the Cubs and Cards both scored in the 9th, we'd have been headed to extras, not Big Z's 13 w of the year.

If I haven't changed your mind, you are a brick wall and you cannot be swayed except by little puppies and ice cream.

Have a good one,

Ryan